On Tuesday (Sept 1st) the Sunday Business Post online edition ran an op-ed supplied by the Minister of State for European Affairs and Defence, Thomas Byrne TD. As he says, in a Tweet/X post, he uses the article (paywall) to share his thoughts on why the Irish Triple Lock is no longer fit for purpose.
I wrote an article responding to his flawed assertions. The Business Post opted not to run either the Minister’s article, nor my response, in this Sunday’s edition (Sept 6th). Here is what I wrote:
Government Case for Scrapping Triple Lock Doesn’t Stand Up
Minister of State Thomas Byrne TD, recently set out the Government’s case for abolishing the Triple Lock, arguing that “taking hold of reality does not mean letting go of our ideals” and that the mechanism is “outdated” and “no longer fit for purpose.”
He points to Ireland’s withdrawal from missions such as Operation Irini, warns of a 90% collapse in Irish peacekeeping numbers, and insists reform will leave neutrality and Ireland’s international legal obligations untouched. Examined claim by claim, none withstand scrutiny.
Throughout his article Minister Byrne conflates “reform” with “remove”, using “reform” to describe what is, in substance, outright removal. To reform something is to change its form while preserving its function. To remove something is to abolish it. That is not a semantic quibble.
Fianna Fáil’s 2024 manifesto promised sensible reform, not the total abolition of the UN element of the Triple Lock. Blurring that distinction, deliberately or otherwise, is breaking the covenant Fianna Fáil made with those who backed it on the strength of its neutrality commitments in 2016, 2020 and successive referendum campaigns.
Repeating the standard government line Minister Byrne says the Triple Lock, introduced in “1960’s Ireland,” is an outdated relic no longer fit for purpose. But the legal position within the UN has not changed since 1960, nor since legislation was amended in 1993 and 2006.
Russia, China, the United States and other big 5 permanent members hold exactly the same Security Council veto then as they do now. Indeed, this was the case in 2020 when Minister Byrne’s party said “we will fully maintain neutrality and the triple lock mechanism”.
If the veto was compatible with the Triple Lock for over six decades, including through the Cold War, the claim that it has suddenly become “outdated” is a bogus pretext, not a serious legal argument. The thing that has changed since 2020 is the government’s urgent need to be seen to do something… almost anything… on Irish defence given the decade of underinvestment and dwindling Defence Force strength.
As for the government’s “loss of sovereignty” claim, the Triple Lock is not some external constraint imposed on Ireland, it is Irish law, proposed by Seán Lemass as Taoiseach and enacted by the Oireachtas. Removing it does not restore sovereignty; it removes a domestic safeguard in which the public has confidence.
Seville Declaration
Does the government forget that the Triple Lock principle was recognised in the Seville Declaration of June 2002, agreed by EU leaders in response to the Nice I referendum? Seville affirmed that Ireland’s EU foreign and security policy participation does not prejudice our traditional military neutrality, and explicitly required the elements of the Triple Lock for Irish participation in EU military operations. Yet, only two decades later, we have a government portraying as “imposed” a mechanism that the EU recognized as Ireland’s right to decide its own course.
Minister Byrne asserts that opponents of abolition offer no alternative. They do. Repeatedly. The original 1960 Act cites either UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolutions. In practice UN missions were only established by (and then later, mandated by) the Security Council), but one alternative would be to require a mission to be in pursuit of an agreed UN General Assembly resolution.
In a recent “Mooney on Politics” podcast I recorded with Prof Roger Mac Ginty of Durham University, we looked at also using the OSCE as a mandating authority for peace support missions. As Prof Mac Ginty went on to say in that podcast,
“…to simply do away with it [The Triple Lock] is yet another case of a state walking away from the United Nations… It’s undercutting the very notion of multilateralism.
There are several alternatives that build on our commitment to multilateralism. The government’s plan for abolition ends it. And for what gain? Especially when our Defence Forces are 3500 men and women shy of the 11,500-force strength promised by this government (by 2028).
Shortage of troops a bigger issue
Finally, the minister warns of a wave of withdrawals up to 90%. This dire prediction ignores the deeper problem of over a decade of underinvestment and political neglect of defence. It is true that spending is now increasing, but you do not reverse over a decade of underinvestment with two or three years of barely double-digit percentage increases.
The Triple Lock did not cause our 2024 withdrawal from the UNDOF mission on the Golan Heights. As (then) Tánaiste Micheál Martin stated it was due to an “assessment of the sustainability of the Defence Forces’ overseas commitments.” In other words, not enough personnel.
Fianna Fáil campaigned on the Triple Lock as a neutrality guarantee in the Nice and Lisbon referenda, and again at the 2016 and 2020 elections. President Connolly’s presidential campaign, which secured a record 63% first-preference vote, placed the Triple Lock “at the core” of neutrality.
Minister Byrne is correct when he says that Ireland faces a changed security landscape. He is wrong that scrapping the Triple Lock is the answer. As Prof Mac Ginty says in our podcast discussion:
“…eras of uncertainty mean that states have to be very careful, and perhaps not rush into changes that they might have to live with for quite some time.” This government is rushing and has no idea to where, or why.
Bio:
Derek Mooney is host of the Mooney on politics Podcast, Now a public affairs consultant Derek was Special Adviser to the Fianna Fáil Minister for Defence from 2004 -2010.
You can find details of the Podcast with Prof Roger Mac Ginty of Durham university at this link: https://derekmooney.ie/2026/08/31/mooney-on-politics-podcast-discussion-with-prof-roger-macginty/
Here you will find:
- The full podcast (Audio only)
- A clip on the triple lock (video via YouTube)
- Plus, an AI generated transcript.
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