As I mentioned in the earlier post, I decided to run a 2-day Twitter Poll on government formation on foot of my latest Broadsheet.ie column.
- The poll ran on Twitter for 48 hours from 11.30am, Mon April 6th to 11.30am Wed April 8th.
- 2019 votes were cast over that 48-hour period.
- The Tweet poll received 7699 impressions and 2476 total engagements
The wisdom of crowds:
Wisdom of Crowds concept was popularized by James Surowiecki in his 2004 book. It is the idea that large groups of people can be collectively smarter than individual experts when it comes to predicting outcomes. Rather than asking individuals what they wish to see happen, you ask what they think the crowd will collectively do.
So, Twitter was asked:
Which of these 4 options do you think is the most likely to happen (NOT which do you prefer)…
• FF/FG/Green/Ind govt
• FF/FG/Lab/Ind govt
• FF/FG/Ind govt
• 2nd election
The Results:
• 33.9% 2nd election
• 31.9% FF/FG/Ind govt
• 17.7% FF/FG/Green/Ind govt
• 16.4% FF/FG/Lab/Ind govt
In terms of a second general election versus some form of government with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Independent alone or PLUS either Greens or Labour, the numbers are:
- Second Election: 33.9%
- FF/FG/Ind +Green/labour/neither 66.1%
I have produced the results in PDF format: Government Formation Twitter Poll
derekmooney.ie 
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