Here are my speaking notes / script for my podcast episode entitled: Change FF leader now… or wait until 2027… or never? This is not a transcript. It is the set of notes I drafted in advance of recording. As usual my podcast, as recorded, diverts slightly from the script as I riff on some themes, but it is guided by these notes.
Fianna Fáil’s Next Leader: Why 2027 Is Too Late
Today I want to talk about something many in Fianna Fáil are thinking about privately, but very few are prepared to say out loud: the future of their party, and the identity of the next Fianna Fáil leader.
Because whether people like it or not, Micheál Martin’s remaining time as party leader – and as Taoiseach – is limited. That’s not a personal attack; it’s just where the political calendar and political reality have brought us.
The Real Question Facing Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil TDs can no longer afford to ask: “Should there be a change of leader?”
The real question now is: “What kind of leader do we want next, and when do we want that person in place?”
There is a tendency in the party to kick this can down the road.
You hear phrases like “after the EU presidency,” “after the rotation with Fine Gael.”
But politics punishes drift. It punishes parties that look like they’re hanging on, rather than planning ahead.
This also presupposes that he has any intention ever of leaving the leadership voluntarily. Many believe he will not go until he is pushed out… and hard.
Right now, the political timetable is clear. Micheál Martin is in the first phase of a rotating Taoiseach arrangement, with Simon Harris due to take over as Taoiseach in November 2027.
We all see that the sands are running through the glass. Time is not on his side.
So Fianna Fáil TDs have a choice. Do they shape the succession on their own terms, in good time? Or do they wait until the last possible moment and have change forced on them in a rushed, chaotic way that makes the party – and the government – look ridiculous?
Why Waiting Until 2027 Is Politically Daft
Let’s get into the heart of it: the idea that Fianna Fáil should wait until early 2027 to change leader.
On paper, this might sound neat: keep Micheál in place, avoid rocking the boat, and only switch when you absolutely have to. But if you actually play that out, it very quickly looks politically daft.
Here’s the sequence that some people are seriously talking about:
- Micheál Martin steps down as Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach in early or mid–2027.
- A new Fianna Fáil leader becomes Taoiseach – for a few months.
- Then, in November 2027, under the coalition deal, Simon Harris takes over as Taoiseach for the remainder of the term.
2027 – The year of the three Taoisigh?
So, you end up with a year in which Ireland could have three different Taoisigh.
Just pause on that for a moment. Three Taoisigh in one year. Imagine how that plays to the public?
People already think this is about jobs for the boys / girls, or musical chairs at the top. Giving them a year where the main business in Dublin appears to be swapping Taoisigh only reinforces that view.
It would hand Sinn Féin and the broader opposition an open goal. Their message writes itself: “While you’re struggling with housing, health, and the cost of living, the government is busy passing the Taoiseach’s office around like a relay baton.”
And it’s not just about optics. When you change Taoiseach, you disrupt government.
You change ministers, you reset relationships, you shift focus. Doing that once is manageable. Doing it twice in a single year is self-inflicted instability.
For Fianna Fáil, the argument against waiting until 2027 is simple: it makes the party look unserious, it makes the government look silly, and it suggests that the party is more focused on choreography than on policy.
The Strategic Case for a 2026 Transition
If 2027 is too late, what’s the alternative? The logical window is 2026. A carefully managed transition in 2026 would do three things for Fianna Fáil:
- It gives the new leader time to define themselves.
A leader who only gets a few months in office before a Taoiseach rotation, or even before a general election, is stuck in firefighting mode. They’re reacting, not leading.
If the change happens in 2026, the new Fianna Fáil leader has a decent run-in to:- Shape a narrative.
- Put their stamp on policy priorities.
- Show the public who they are before the next campaign really begins.
- It gives the party time to rediscover its identity.
Right now, Fianna Fáil is at risk of being seen as the “other” centrist party in government – fine people, competent ministers, but not clearly distinct from Fine Gael.
A fresh leadership period in 2026 allows the party to answer some big questions:- Are we the party of republican social democracy, rooted in communities and local organisation?
- Are we the party that puts housing and public services first, while still being seen as economically responsible?
- How do we differ – in tone, instinct, and policy – from both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin?
- It lets Fianna Fáil look planned, not panicked.
A 2026 transition can be framed as a deliberate act of renewal.
It says: “We are confident enough to manage succession. We are planning for the next decade, not clinging to the last one.”
Waiting until 2027 makes it look like Micheál Martin was dragged out of office by a calendar, not by a considered party strategy.
Micheál Martin’s Record and the Need to Move On
Making the case for a change in 2026 is not the same as denigrating Micheál Martin. He has had a long and consequential career:
- Party leader through some of Fianna Fáil’s darkest days.
- Taoiseach during the Covid crisis.
- A central figure in maintaining political stability during Brexit
You can acknowledge that record and still say: the time for renewal has arrived.
In fact, a planned transition in 2026 is the best way to protect his legacy.
If he stays on too long, the story becomes about hanging on, about “one more election”, about “just a bit more time”. That never ends well for any leader.
If, instead, there is a clear, dignified handover that he is seen to shape – not resist – then his time in office can be remembered as the bridge between the crisis years and a new phase for Fianna Fáil.
What Fianna Fáil TDs Should Be Doing Now
What does this all mean for Fianna Fáil TDs listening to this – or for those of you who talk to them, lobby them, or canvass for them?
It means the private conversations need to move beyond personalities and into priorities. TDs should be asking themselves:
- What kind of Fianna Fáil do I want to be presenting on the doorsteps in the next election?
- Which issues must define us: housing, regional development, public services, the cost of living, Irish unity, neutrality, climate?
- Which potential leader is best placed to communicate that story, not just in Dublin media studios, but in parish halls and housing estates?
The leadership question cannot simply be: “Who can hold the parliamentary party together for another 18 months?”
It must be:
“Who can reconnect Fianna Fáil with voters who have drifted away – to Sinn Féin, to independents, or to disengagement?”
That discussion needs to happen in 2026, not in a blind panic in 2027 when the Taoiseach’s office is about to rotate and everyone is watching every twitch in Leinster House.
Closing Thoughts
Fianna Fáil has been at its best when it has looked forward – when it has been the party of energy, ambition, and renewal, rather than the party of entitlement and inertia.
Right now, it stands at a crossroads. Like Robert Frosts two roads in a yellow wood.
One path says: “Keep going as we are, and deal with leadership when we absolutely have to, sometime in 2027.”
The other says: “Use 2026 as a year of managed renewal: new leader, clear identity, ready for the next election.”
One path leads to a year of three Taoisigh and a government that looks like it’s playing musical chairs at the top. The other path offers at least a chance of presenting a refreshed, confident Fianna Fáil to the country.
If the party wants to look like it’s preparing to lead Ireland into the 2030s, not reliving the battles of the 2010s, then the work cannot be delayed any longer.
The time to think about the next Fianna Fáil leader – and what that leader should stand for – is now… and by now I mean before the end of June.
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