We must base Irish Defence Policy on debate, not caprice

In this week’s column I return to a topic I have discussed many times over the years – Irish Defence. Though there are some signs that things may be about to improve, the pace is no where near fast enough. The Minister responsible is more pre-occupied with positioning and messaging, than on tackling the real problems. We see this in his hands off approach to the current Defence Bill. You can also listen to the accompanying Podcast, it also includes a short review of Eamon Ryan’s leader’s address at last weekend’s Green Party conference. 

It’s deeply frustrating to tune in to TV or Radio debate on Ireland’s traditional policy of military neutrality and the Triple Lock and then hear the case for both being argued by people who seem far more interested in criticising the U.S. or the E.U. or the very concept of military defence.

Take last Wednesday’s Tonight Show on Virgin Media TV. On the panel were Deputies Dr Cathal Berry and Mick Barry and Dr Karen Devine. While the producers may have anticipated that Dr Devine and Deputy Barry would be making the case for military neutrality and the retention of the Triple Lock (and I accept the risk of using these two phrases as if they were interchangeable) I heard precious little from either one on the actual case for both.

Continue reading “We must base Irish Defence Policy on debate, not caprice”

So many words… so little meaning. Martin and Harris 2024 Árd Fheis speeches

In this week’s column I perform my regular analysis of the party leader addresses given over the past two weeks by An Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Taoiseach Simon Harris. I consider the two scripts as pieces of political communications. I examine the numbers and wonder if parties no longer see these set piece speeches as worthwhile in themselves, but simply the price of getting their leader on the Sunday TV and Radio interview slots and getting some soundbites into print and Social Media? This article can also be heard as a Podcast

Though Mark Twain may not be the first name to spring to mind when considering Micheál Martin and Simon Harris’s Árd Fheis speeches of, it is the one that pops into mine.

The reason is the line usually associated with Twain: “I didn’t have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead” (the quote is sometimes attributed to Blaise Pascal).

In both speeches, Harris and Martin delivered scripts that were, to my mind, far too dense and over packed with unnecessary detail. As a consequence, both speeches were delivered at a speed and pace that left any viewers at home struggling to catch up.

Both delivered speeches that were more designed be informative and demonstrative, than persuasive or motivational. Put bluntly, they were of the “one for everyone in the audience” with long lists of achievements or of future promises.

While this should not come as a shock to those who have sat through any of Martin’s 9 previous Árd Fheis speeches (This one was his 10th speech in his near 14 years as Fianna Fáil leader) it is decidedly odd that Harris, who we are all assured is the great communicator chose to do the same?

Though the sobriquet great communicator can often be a euphemism for something else… wasn’t Boris Johnson once hailed as such?

However, back to those two Saturday night speeches. Neither one scrimped on either facts or stats, but is that really the right diet to serve to a less than interested viewing public on a Saturday evening? I think not.

It increasingly seems that the Saturday night Árd Fheis speech is now the price a party leader must pay to get a solid one-to-one interview on the following day’s The Week in Politics on RTÉ TV and This Week on RTÉ Radio One.

Having waded through both speeches, three or four times each to check timings, see what parts were omitted and gauge the reaction of folks in the hall, I can assure you that you will get a far better understanding of what the two leaders are about from those interviews than you will from the speeches. This may help explain why Sinn Féin is not planning to have its Árd Fheis until the autumn and is not use its airtime on the Locals and Europeans?

The two speeches, in numbers:

 MartinHarris
Time slot22m 34s24m 48s
Applause breaks2343
Applause time2m 18s5m 40s
Actual speaking time20m 16s19m 08s
Words spoken3,3503004
Sentences412218
Word per minute165157

By the way, while both the Harris and Martin speeches are filled with statistics, not all of them stand up to scrutiny. Take these contrasting lines on housing.

While Martin framed the government’s record on housing since 2020 in the following terms:

In the last four years more houses have been built than in the previous nine years combined.  There is more to be done, but that is real momentum.

Martin on housing

Harris described that same achievement, this way:

Under Fine Gael, the number of homes being built has increased six-fold. The number of social homes has increased more than ten-fold. But we need more homes and more home ownership.

Harris on housing

While I would strongly argue that Martin’s depiction is the more accurate, An Tánaiste was in such a rush to get to his next line and to deliver his script within the allotted time that he, once again, undersold a key line.

Fianna Fáil argues that it put country above politics and went into government with Fine Gael, a party that had twice been rejected by the voters, to impose a major public policy shift on housing… and yet its leader blurts out this key achievement without punctuating the point.

This single line should have had the crowd in the hall on their feet to congratulate their leader, and their ministers, on pushing through a major policy shift.

But it didn’t.

There was no applause break. No cheers.

Instead, the Fianna Fáil ploughed on with his busy text to talk at speed about the Help to Buy, First Home and Vacant Property Refurbishment schemes. Each one a most worthwhile policy, but none as important as this political point.

But this is not the only problem with going for this shopping list approach.

When you opt to have one for everyone in the audience then you better deliver one for everyone. Though both took the same approach, I would venture than perhaps Harris did it more effectively, in rhetorical terms.

This was most evident on the two occasions where Harris directed his comments to the audience at home. The first was his assurance to people with disabilities that their voice would be heard. The second was his call to action, directly asked those watching for their trust, support and especially their votes.

Harris call to action…

Maybe both men should have heeded the advice of Bertie Ahern, when he advised Harris to only take on a ‘small number of issues’ as Taoiseach.

Bertie Ahern advice

Well, the same applies to speeches.

This is not to say that Harris was more convincing than Martin. Frankly, while Harris’s writers may have served their man better, the script they gave him was loaded with far too many clichés. A point succinctly made by Pat Leahy in this tweet.  

To his credit, Martin’s gravitas and more assured and polished delivery made up for the dense paucity of the script.  

When you look at the list of themes Martin highlighted in his script you can see that this was largely dictated by the cabinet portfolios held by Fianna Fáil ministers.

There were sections on Housing, Education, Health, Agriculture, Finance and Foreign Affairs and even Gaeltacht, all portfolios now held by members of Fianna Fáil in government.

But while all these portfolios are held by Fianna Fáil, these are not all the portfolios held by Fianna Fáil. There was one that merited no mention by the Tánaiste whatsoever… Defence.

It is the responsibility held by the Tánaiste himself, yet he could not be bothered to make even a passing reference to it. There was no mention of the recruitment and retention crisis, no mention of his plans to shred Fianna Fáil’s long standing commitment to the triple-lock.

Not that the singular defence reference in Simon Harris’s script was all that important, comprising one short non-specific promise to do more to support and resource our Defence Forces. No mention of the decade plus of neglect by his party of defence.

Ironically, Harris’s speech focused almost as much on Fianna Fáil policy areas as Martin’s. Harris was forthright in parking his policy tanks on the lawns of Fianna Fáil departments with big ticket pronouncements on housing, agriculture, and health.

The one non-Fianna Fáil held department to get a major mention in Harris’s speech was Justice, with Harris pivoting to reposition Fine Gael as the party of Law and Order. It was a pitch that led many in the commentariat to see Helen McEntee’s time in Justice as coming to a close a few days later.

The fact that McEntee has continued on Justice Minister is rightly seen as evidence that Harris’s Árd Fheis speech was less about substance and all about messaging, but messaging that has a lower shelf life than a Tik Tok video.

The fact that An Tánaiste did not mention crime or the Gardaí and had nothing to say about what had happened in Dublin a few months earlier, despite the presence in the hall of one of the highest profile and effective Fianna Fáil Lord Mayors of Dublin in decades, truly puzzles me.

As does the lack of any direct reference to a distinct Fianna Fáil position on migration, despite his party producing a policy document on migration – one largely framed by comments and analysis from Jim O’Callaghan T.D. only a day earlier. Indeed, proposals from that document were front page news on Saturday’s Irish Independent.

Before I conclude my analysis let me quickly turn my analysis to the other key actor in any Árd Fheis, the party audience in the hall. Their reaction, their loyal approval of key lines and key phrases can subliminally point the increasingly disinterested viewer at home to a point that they may have other wise missed.

Just as the dreaded laughter track in a sit com can point you were the writers put their jokes. The whoops and hollers of the party faithful help tell the viewing public that these are the important political takeaways.

Viewed in this context, Harris’s speech, was the hands down winner, with his Fine Gael crowd cheering and clapping twice as much and for twice as long as Martin’s more jaded and borderline apathetic cohort.

Let me demonstrate by comparing the audience reaction to their comments on what is happening in Gaza. For both leaders, this was a key moment in their speech. Their message was almost similar. But listen to the audience response.

Harris on Palestine
Martin on Palestine

This does not make Harris’s speech better, however.

Frankly both speeches were wasted opportunities with both parties opting to churn out formulaic scripts containing disjointed soundbites, but 100% free of any over arching narrative. These speeches could have been serious attempts to communicate directly with the audience at home. They weren’t. So, in that context, both failed.

They were not spectacular fails… but they were still fails nonetheless.

Nation must go on standby while Fine Gael resets?

In this week’s column I ask why the nation’s business is being put on hold while Fine Gael attempts to find and then hit its “reset” button.  This column was written on the same day as the news of the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson emerged – along with the very serious nature of the charges made against him. I reflect broadly, but very briefly on this news in my accompanying Podcast

Simon Harris speaks in Athlone. Picture: Charles McQuillan/Getty Image sourced Sunday Business Post

The nation’s business has been effectively put on hold while Fine Gael takes another 10 days off to try to find, and then hit, the reset button.

On Wednesday March 20th the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar caught everyone off guard, including much valued political allies as the Finance Minister as Paschal Donohoe, and announced that he was resigning immediately as Fine Gael leader.

He also stated that he would formally resign as Taoiseach, as soon as my successor is able to take up that office. Note the wording. In effect, the outgoing Taoiseach said that the election of a new Taoiseach would be based on a timetable set by the Fine Gael organisation.

Continue reading “Nation must go on standby while Fine Gael resets?”

Micheál Martin’s Árd Fheis speech – A lot said, but not much new

By my calculations last Saturday night’s Árd Fheis speech was Micheál Martin’s ninth as party leader. His first being at the 73ú Árd Fheis in 2012. This week’s micro-gathering was the the 81st.

Martin enters his fourteenth year* as party leader in three months. He has been unfortunate in missing out on several opportunities to address the party faithful,  particularly during his time as Taoiseach.

Árd Fheis speeches matter. Though leaders now have other online platforms where they can directly address the public, they greatly cherish the half hour TV slot, once every 12 – 18 months. Continue reading “Micheál Martin’s Árd Fheis speech – A lot said, but not much new”

Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…

It is likely that the next Dáil will have 178 members

Last Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll findings left many people wondering why Fine Gael had suffered such a big drop in support (-4%).

The publication of the second half of the poll’s findings, a day later, offered an answer. It showed that voters would much prefer to see more money spent on improving public services and infrastructure than on tax cuts.

Only 13% of 35 – 49-year-olds (which at 19% is Fine Gael’s strongest voting cohort – though only just) want to see the government surplus used for tax cuts compared to 24% who want to see the surplus used to improve public services such as health and education or 39% who want to see it used to build infrastructure such as public transport, housing, hospitals, and schools. The ratios are very similar across other age groups. Continue reading “Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…”

When you have a government determined to drive away support…

Welcome to my first column and podcast in several weeks. Apologies for the delay. This column is also available as a podcast via Spotify

From Google Maps – Schuman roundabout in Brussels (rond-point Schuman), site of several EU offices)

It has been a few weeks since I last produced a column or podcast. This lull has not been due to any lack of material. Far from it. There has been enough political activity over the past two months for several columns.

So why the dwindling output, you ask?

Well, it is indirectly related to the late great Jeffrey Bernard. Regular readers and listeners will know that I am a bit of a fan of Bernard… and regularly pepper my output with his bon mots.

Continue reading “When you have a government determined to drive away support…”

Because leadership matters… SocDems poll bounce is about more than just a new leader

This is my first column in several weeks (apologies for that) and what an eventful few weeks they have been. Rather than trying to unpack all those events, I start with the latest opinion poll and work my way backwards from that… returning to a not unfamiliar theme… Fianna Fáil’s relevance problem.  

It is six or seven weeks since I last sat down to wrote one of these analysis pieces. The delay is odd, as there has been no shortage of domestic political events to write about.

From the breakthrough on the Northern Ireland protocol, to the change of leadership in the Social Democrats, and from Bertie Ahern’s return to full Fianna Fáil membership to at least six major opinion polls including one in the North looking at the political attitudes of those who do not identify as either nationalist or unionist.

Where to start? Perhaps it is easiest to start with the latest Ireland Thinks poll from the Sunday Independent and attempt to work back… though knowing that I won’t address much of that backlog in just one article.

So, what do we learn from this latest poll? Continue reading “Because leadership matters… SocDems poll bounce is about more than just a new leader”

The perils of the mid-term #reshuffle

In this blog I discuss the principal factors a party leader should consider when contemplating a mid-term reshuffle. Though I draw many of these from British political research, I also consider recent Irish expamples and refrain – largely – from engaging in too much speculation about who may be in or out next Saturday… or next week when the junior ministries are announced. 

Will it be “as you were” with some folks just moving steps rather than entering/exiting?

Aware of Paddy Ashdown’s background as both a Royal Marine and a Special Boat Service officer, Charles Kennedy observed wryly to the House of Commons in Oct 1998 that Ashdown was: “the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.”

Not that the Iron Lady saw it that way. Speaking about her post-election reshuffle options in a BBC interview on the day after her 1983 election win, she resisted Sir Robin Day’s invitation to call herself a good (political) butcher. Instead, she disagreed with Herbert Asquith’s claim that a good Prime Minister must be a good butcher, before adding that they did need to know how to carve the joint. A distinction without a difference?

Continue reading “The perils of the mid-term #reshuffle”

Fine Gael’s triple lock three card trick

In this blogpost I suggest that the latest Fine Gael suggestion that Ireland abandon the UN mandate element of the triple-lock mechanism is just about distracting public focus from its ongoing failure to undo the decade of neglect it has inflicted on Irish defence.     

Minister Coveney waits to respond to Seanad Éireann’s debate on military neutrality

Last Wednesday evening (around 5.30pm) Seanad Éireann debated a Private Members motion on “Ireland’s Military Neutrality.” It is well worth a read (or a viewing) as it is a calm and reasoned discussion of Irish Defence policy and the large gaps that appear therein.

Huge credit is due to the two proposers of the motion: Senators Michael McDowell and Tom Clonan. They crafted a motion that was both measured but frank. The motion, which was passed, ultimately called on the government to:

– properly fund Ireland’s Army, Air Corps, Naval Service and Cyber Capability: Continue reading “Fine Gael’s triple lock three card trick”

A Timely Tale of Two Speeches

In my first post in since July I chose to take a “compare and contrast” look at the recent party leader speeches of two of the most important (and long standing) political leaders on these two islands: Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon MSP and An Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheal Martin, T.D.  

This is my first written political blogpost in several months. I certainly cannot blame the absence of political news or activity for the lengthy absence. If anything, the speed, and frequency of developments made writing new blogs impractical, as no sooner had I written some piece of considered political analysis than events had overtaken it.

There were other contributory facts, including a fairly mild dose of Covid that was followed by about two months of relatively minor breathing issues that still sapped my energy levels.

I did post a slightly hurried Mooney on Politics Podcast on the difficulties with the Fianna Fáil/SDLP partnership while I was in Brussels, but this is my first-time putting words on screen since July.

The temptation, therefore, is to review what has happened since, but I have resisted that temptation and chosen to: (a) return to a frequent theme, the leadership of Micheal Martin and (b) look at this through the lens of comparison.

The idea for this comparison suggested itself by the coincidence of both Fianna Fáil and the SNP having their first posy pandemic, in-person party conferences within a few days of each other.

Continue reading “A Timely Tale of Two Speeches”