If there was a general election this week, the most likely outcome would be another general election.
But there is no general happening next week, or next month. In truth… barring some major political catastrophe… there is no chance of an election this side of the 2024 Local and European elections, but the shape and context of that next election will be framed once the summer recess is over.
As the government could continue into 2025 as the polling could be held as late as the start of March 2025 it could decide to deliver another Budget next year. It is possible, but also unlikely as the feel-good impact of that Budget (assuming there were any) would not be felt in voters’ pockets until later in 2025. Continue reading “Is Sinn Féin flatlining from its “known knowns”?”→
It is likely that the next Dáil will have 178 members
Last Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll findings left many people wondering why Fine Gael had suffered such a big drop in support (-4%).
The publication of the second half of the poll’s findings, a day later, offered an answer. It showed that voters would much prefer to see more money spent on improving public services and infrastructure than on tax cuts.
Only 13% of 35 – 49-year-olds (which at 19% is Fine Gael’s strongest voting cohort – though only just) want to see the government surplus used for tax cuts compared to 24% who want to see the surplus used to improve public services such as health and education or 39% who want to see it used to build infrastructure such as public transport, housing, hospitals, and schools. The ratios are very similar across other age groups. Continue reading “Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…”→
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