From the Sinn Féin leader’s own Twitter/X feed: LINK
While it may seem odd, even discourteous, to start a critique of last Saturday’s Sinn Féin Árd Fheis address by Mary Lou McDonald with a reference to Sesame Street… well bear with me.
One of the great achievements of that landmark educational programme was how it borrowed methods of television advertising, jingles, and short segments to promote letters and numbers instead of product and sponsors. Each episode ended with the message today’s programme was brought to you by the letter P and the number 5… or whatever.
If last Saturday night’s address had such a message, it would have been just one word: change.
By my calculations last Saturday night’s Árd Fheis speech was Micheál Martin’s ninth as party leader. His first being at the 73ú Árd Fheis in 2012. This week’s micro-gathering was the the 81st.
Martin enters his fourteenth year* as party leader in three months. He has been unfortunate in missing out on several opportunities to address the party faithful, particularly during his time as Taoiseach.
Poker players among you will know about “tells.” These are the little involuntary actions, sometimes physical, sometimes verbal, that “tell” about the strength of another player’s hand.
According to those who know and understand the game far better than I, one common “tell” is to watch how other players handle their chips. Players with strong hands tend to grab their chips well before the action reaches them, indicating a desire to bet. While players with weak hands will leave their stacks untouched.
Not being much of a poker player I will have to take their word for it. But, as a keen watcher of the game of politics I can talk about this government’s more significant “tells.”
We saw a big one at the recent Fine Gael think-in. It involved Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar wading into the EU nitrates derogation controversy by promising the Irish Farmers Association he would invite EU environment commissioner to Ireland to discuss the issue. Continue reading “Feck the tiger… says Varadkar to Martin”→
It is likely that the next Dáil will have 178 members
Last Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll findings left many people wondering why Fine Gael had suffered such a big drop in support (-4%).
The publication of the second half of the poll’s findings, a day later, offered an answer. It showed that voters would much prefer to see more money spent on improving public services and infrastructure than on tax cuts.
Only 13% of 35 – 49-year-olds (which at 19% is Fine Gael’s strongest voting cohort – though only just) want to see the government surplus used for tax cuts compared to 24% who want to see the surplus used to improve public services such as health and education or 39% who want to see it used to build infrastructure such as public transport, housing, hospitals, and schools. The ratios are very similar across other age groups. Continue reading “Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…”→
Welcome to my first column and podcast in several weeks. Apologies for the delay.This column is also available as a podcast via Spotify
From Google Maps – Schuman roundabout in Brussels (rond-point Schuman), site of several EU offices)
It has been a few weeks since I last produced a column or podcast. This lull has not been due to any lack of material. Far from it. There has been enough political activity over the past two months for several columns.
So why the dwindling output, you ask?
Well, it is indirectly related to the late great Jeffrey Bernard. Regular readers and listeners will know that I am a bit of a fan of Bernard… and regularly pepper my output with his bon mots.
This is my first column in several weeks (apologies for that) and what an eventful few weeks they have been. Rather than trying to unpack all those events, I start with the latest opinion poll and work my way backwards from that… returning to a not unfamiliar theme… Fianna Fáil’s relevance problem.
It is six or seven weeks since I last sat down to wrote one of these analysis pieces. The delay is odd, as there has been no shortage of domestic political events to write about.
From the breakthrough on the Northern Ireland protocol, to the change of leadership in the Social Democrats, and from Bertie Ahern’s return to full Fianna Fáil membership to at least six major opinion polls including one in the North looking at the political attitudes of those who do not identify as either nationalist or unionist.
Where to start? Perhaps it is easiest to start with the latest Ireland Thinks poll from the Sunday Independent and attempt to work back… though knowing that I won’t address much of that backlog in just one article.
In this blog I discuss the principal factors a party leader should consider when contemplating a mid-term reshuffle. Though I draw many of these from British political research, I also consider recent Irish expamples and refrain – largely – from engaging in too much speculation about who may be in or out next Saturday… or next week when the junior ministries are announced.
Will it be “as you were” with some folks just moving steps rather than entering/exiting?
Aware of Paddy Ashdown’s background as both a Royal Marine and a Special Boat Service officer, Charles Kennedy observed wryly to the House of Commons in Oct 1998 that Ashdown was: “the only party leader who’s a trained killer. Although, to be fair, Mrs Thatcher was self-taught.”
Not that the Iron Lady saw it that way. Speaking about her post-election reshuffle options in a BBC interview on the day after her 1983 election win, she resisted Sir Robin Day’s invitation to call herself a good (political) butcher. Instead, she disagreed with Herbert Asquith’s claim that a good Prime Minister must be a good butcher, before adding that they did need to know how to carve the joint. A distinction without a difference?
In this blogpost I suggest that the latest Fine Gael suggestion that Ireland abandon the UN mandate element of the triple-lock mechanism is just about distracting public focus from its ongoing failure to undo the decade of neglect it has inflicted on Irish defence.
Minister Coveney waits to respond to Seanad Éireann’s debate on military neutrality
Last Wednesday evening (around 5.30pm) Seanad Éireann debated a Private Members motion on “Ireland’s Military Neutrality.” It is well worth a read (or a viewing) as it is a calm and reasoned discussion of Irish Defence policy and the large gaps that appear therein.
Huge credit is due to the two proposers of the motion: Senators Michael McDowell and Tom Clonan. They crafted a motion that was both measured but frank. The motion, which was passed, ultimately called on the government to:
In my first post in since July I chose to take a “compare and contrast” look at the recent party leader speeches of two of the most important (and long standing) political leaders on these two islands: Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon MSP and An Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheal Martin, T.D.
This is my first written political blogpost in several months. I certainly cannot blame the absence of political news or activity for the lengthy absence. If anything, the speed, and frequency of developments made writing new blogs impractical, as no sooner had I written some piece of considered political analysis than events had overtaken it.
There were other contributory facts, including a fairly mild dose of Covid that was followed by about two months of relatively minor breathing issues that still sapped my energy levels.
I did post a slightly hurried Mooney on Politics Podcast on the difficulties with the Fianna Fáil/SDLP partnership while I was in Brussels, but this is my first-time putting words on screen since July.
The temptation, therefore, is to review what has happened since, but I have resisted that temptation and chosen to: (a) return to a frequent theme, the leadership of Micheal Martin and (b) look at this through the lens of comparison.
The idea for this comparison suggested itself by the coincidence of both Fianna Fáil and the SNP having their first posy pandemic, in-person party conferences within a few days of each other.
I discussed the implications of the latest political scandal for An Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil on RTÉ Radio One’s This Week show on Sunday August 28th, 2022.
My view is that An Taoiseach was hoping to avoid losing Deputy Troy as a Junior Minister as he did not wish to face into the prospect of nominating a replacement at this time. There are five or six very capable and willing candidates for appointment, each feeling that they have an “understanding” with the party leader that they will be promoted when the reshuffle comes in late December. Continue reading “Implications of the latest political scandal for Fianna Fáil leadership”→
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