Feck the tiger… says Varadkar to Martin

Poker players among you will know about “tells.” These are the little involuntary actions, sometimes physical, sometimes verbal, that “tell” about the strength of another player’s hand.

According to those who know and understand the game far better than I, one common “tell” is to watch how other players handle their chips. Players with strong hands tend to grab their chips well before the action reaches them, indicating a desire to bet. While players with weak hands will leave their stacks untouched.

Not being much of a poker player I will have to take their word for it. But, as a keen watcher of the game of politics I can talk about this government’s more significant “tells.”

We saw a big one at the recent Fine Gael think-in. It involved Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar wading into the EU nitrates derogation controversy by promising the Irish Farmers Association he would invite EU environment commissioner to Ireland to discuss the issue.

Varadkar’s IFA promise came after almost a week of Fine Gael TDs, senators and MEPs accusing Fianna Fáil’s Agriculture Minister, Charlie McConalogue of not doing enough to push back against the EU Commission.

It also came just a few hours after Minister McConalogue ruled out any hopes of re-opening the issue telling an Oireachtas committee that the “Commissioner made it crystal clear that he was not prepared to re-open the Commission Decision of March 2022.”

So, assuming this government still operates a collective mandate and that the well-staffed institutional and political structures that operate at the top of government to ensure the appearance (at least) of coherent joined up government are still in place… how and why did this happen?

Why is An Taoiseach mounting his donkey on Quixotic tilts at Berlaymont windmills?

Unnamed Fianna Fáil sources were ready to give Irish Times their answer with one senior figure hailing the Taoiseach’s bid to gazump McConalogue as a “declaration of election time,” adding that “It looks like one of Leo’s old tricks.”

A justified criticism as this feels a lot like Varadkar’s hosting a housing summit in Jan 2023 that didn’t include Fianna Fáil’s Housing minister, Darragh O’Brien.

However, these spats between the two bigger government parties are mere dross when compared with the growing tensions between the Green party, most particularly with Eamon Ryan on the roads programme, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

As I wrote back in May:

…Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael… know that failing to deliver on these long overdue road improvements schemes across rural Ireland, especially along the northwest and western corridor will cost them seats.

Not content with having just one ring burning under this row, several minor Greens attempted to get a second ring going by all but claiming political credit for An Bord Pleanála refusing permission for the liquefied natural gas terminal in the Shannon estuary. The decision is the latest in this decade and a half long Shannon LNG saga. The bottom line is that Ireland continues to be one of the few European counties with no strategic gas reserve at a time of huge energy insecurity.

With joined up government thinking like this, who needs an opposition?

But, even allowing for this growing rivalry between parties as the government heads into its final 18 months, why would An Taoiseach make such a bizarre solo run on the nitrates’ directive?

Yes, he saw it as a handy way of ingratiating Fine Gael with the IFA while highlighting his party’s differences with both Fianna Fáil and the Greens, but he also knows he cannot deliver the outcome.

The great Lyndon Johnson said you should never tell a man to go to hell, unless you can send him there, so why hold out the hope of something you know you cannot deliver?

Perhaps because Varadkar is less worried about deliverables and more focused on messaging that keeps him just ahead of his government rival.

Cue the story of the nature programme crew filming a tiger in the wild.

As the tiger roars and moves a little closer to them, the sound engineer slips out of his boots and pops on a pair of trainers.

“You’ll never outrun a tiger” says the cameraman.

“Feck the tiger,” says the soundman, “…all that matters is that I outrun you.”

While An Tánaiste Micheal Martin repeatedly commits himself and his party to making this government last for as long as it can, Varadkar confines himself to the occasional speculation as to the election date, though not going any further than saying that the Locals and Europeans will happen before the general election.  

I do not draw any distinction between their motives. I have no doubt that both are primarily motivated by their own survival. This hardly makes them unique in political history, but unlike their predecessors they have remade their respective parties into vehicles that put the leader’s ambitions above the party’s.

Where they do differ is in respect of their willingness to gamble, to take a punt… to go all in.

Martin is utterly risk averse. He sees this trait as having served him well, personally. Folks like me argue that it has been to the detriment of his party… and to the benefit of Sinn Féin… but I’ll not belabour that point here.

We saw his total aversion to taking even the most calculated of risks in his ill-judged decision to continue his confidence and supply deal with Varadkar’s then floundering minority government. He saw it again with his minimalist, promise little 2020 election campaign that failed to grasp the depth of public anger on housing and cost of living issues.

Martin wants and needs this government to stay in place for as long as possible. And while, as with all leaders, time will ultimately undo him – by next July only Dev will have served longer as Fianna Fáil leader – Martin does not feel any pressure now. His grip on the leadership is secure for as long as he remains in government.

Speculation as to whether he may head to the EU Commission, declare for the Áras, or stay on as Fianna Fáil leader is just that… speculation. Even if does fancy a stint as a Commissioner, Martin cannot even hint at it. All he can say publicly is that he plans, absolutely, to lead his party into the next election.

I have no idea what he plans to do. But given Martin’s proclivity not to make decisions or choices he does not have to make; I would be surprised if he has made any decision. Those much closer to government than I insist that Martin and Varadkar have privately agreed that the EU commissionership will be in Martin’s gift.

Will Martin decide not to reappoint the current Irish Commissioner Mairead McGuinness (who a Sunday Independent/Ireland thinks poll found to be the preferred choice of 42% of voters [next highest were Pascal Donohoe 14%, M. Martin 9%, Michael McGrath 7%, and L. Varadkar 3%]) and take the gig himself?

Perhaps… he will, leaving McGuinness with a decision whether to seek re-election to the European Parliament in the Ireland North-West region (and dash Fianna Fáil hopes of a seat gain there).

Or, might Martin opt to send his constituency rival McGrath to Brussels (after only one Budget) and open up speculation as to who he will then move to the important finance portfolio… Donnelly… O’Brien… never mind the prospect of a tough government by-election in the old Cork South Central 4 – seater boundaries… assuming there isn’t an election by this time next year?

The point I am making here, is that these are big decisions and Martin cannot avoid them. The man who has avoided making decisions for much of his career will soon be faced with taking big decisions with major personal consequences.  

Varadkar knows this.

He knows that Martin is determined to keep everything calm and steady. But he also knows that the only available seam of potential extra Fine Gael votes is under the 18-20% territory occupied by Martin’s Fianna Fáil.

Varadkar is not the only one eyeing up that Fianna Fáil voter base. So too is Sinn Féin. Having already won much of Fianna Fáil’s old working-class urban vote, courtesy of Martin’s cautious minimalism, the next logical step for the provos is to come after remaining core Fianna Fáil voters.

Martin’s party could be caught in a pincer movement… but only if it stubbornly refuses to shift.

On one side he has Sinn Féin. It is doing well in the polls, but not well enough to make the next election a fait accompli. Martin’s point about this at the Fianna Fáil think-in was well made. But he once again fails to grasp that he is not the one who should be making it. His intervention had the opposite impact to the one planned. While he chided the media for talking up Sinn Féin’s chances, he was the one elevating them. The headlines coming from day one of his party think-in had Sinn Féin in them, not Fianna Fáil. Yet another Martin own goal.

If attacking Sinn Féin for its past and its crass political cynicism were a winning strategy it would have succeeded by now. But it has not. Sinn Féin is not on an inexorable pathway to power. Fianna Fáil stands between them and high office, if only Fianna Fáil would grasp that the way to reverse Sinn Féin’s progress is to offer voters a better alternative, one that speaks to those voters’ aspirations with policies and proposals that echo the radicalism that once was Fianna Fáil’s stock in trade.   

On the other side Martin has Varadkar, whose own political survival is predicated on keeping his party ahead of Fianna Fáil. Though Martin may see this side as being less of a problem for him than it is for his party, that is a short-term view… the view, perhaps, of someone who sees Brussels as a good place to live and work?

Varadkar knows he can taunt and needle Fianna Fáil ministers and face no public rebuff from Martin. The fact that this keeps Varadkar’s many detractors within Fine Gael off his back is a bonus. Especially when they see how speedily Martin rushed to quash any criticism of Fine Gael’s Justice Minister from within Fianna Fáil.

All this fits neatly into Varadkar’s strategy is to present the next election as a stark choice between a government led by him or one led by Mary Lou McDonald.  Varadkar hopes that by framing the election in such binary terms he will be able to persuade a cohort of Fianna Fáil voters to switch to Fine Gael in order to stop Sinn Féin.

There are many Feb 2020 Fianna Fáil voters who are alarmed by the prospect of Sinn Féin in government. I am one of them. But those voters know a-three-card-trick when they see one.

And while far too much of Martin’s rhetoric plays into this false Varadkar binary narrative, the only thing that will make it inevitable is Fianna Fáil failing to directly challenge it.

Going into government with Fine Gael was a mistake. Martin and his cabinet colleagues defended this decision by saying they could use ministerial office to exert their separate identity.

They have failed. Varadkar derides Fianna Fáil ministers with impunity while Martin rushes to the defence of Fine Gael ones.

What suits the Fianna Fáil leader no longer suits the Fianna Fáil party. It is time for Fianna Fáil to grasp that it may have a stronger hand to play than its cautious and jaded leader dares to realise. This will not result in it changing its leader as quickly as it should, but the emergence of a counter narrative that pushes back against Fine Gael cannibalism while striving to recover support lost to Sinn Féin is better than what’s now on offer.