Here are the key messages from the “Mooney on Politics – A cigar is just a cigar” podcast episode:
Presidential Election Uncertainty: The outcome of the upcoming Irish presidential election is highly uncertain. Only Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin have the resources and parliamentary numbers to nominate a candidate directly, but none have a clear or confident strategy in place.
Fine Gael’s Strategic Risks: Fine Gael appears set on nominating Mairead McGuinness, but delaying the announcement until September is seen as a strategic mistake. This delay could allow fringe candidates to dominate the narrative and create momentum outside the main parties.
Fianna Fáil’s Identity Crisis: There is strong internal pressure within Fianna Fáil to run a candidate, but party leadership seems reluctant, possibly preferring to back an independent. This reluctance is criticized as a lack of political nerve and clarity about the party’s purpose.
Sinn Féin’s Dilemma: Sinn Féin wants to contest the presidency but fears the impact of another electoral setback after recent disappointments. The party is considering a “left unity” candidate with other progressive parties, but this carries its own risks and complications.
Micheál Martin Not Running: The notion that Taoiseach Micheál Martin might run for president is dismissed outright. When he says he’s not interested, he means it—there’s no hidden agenda, echoing the phrase “sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.”
Potential for a Centre or Centre-Left Candidate: There is speculation that a dynamic, younger candidate from the centre or centre-left (possibly backed by Labour, Social Democrats, Greens, or independents) could capture the public mood and win, especially as government satisfaction is declining.
Generational Change: There is perceived public appetite for a younger, more media-savvy president who better reflects modern Ireland, though age alone is not decisive.
Government Incoherence and College Fees Row: The recent controversy over third-level college fees exposes deep incoherence within the government, particularly between Simon Harris and other ministers. Public disagreements and policy freelancing are seen as symptomatic of a government losing cohesion and direction.
Risk of Government Collapse: The government’s internal dysfunction and lack of unified decision-making could lead to its collapse before the end of its term, especially if backbenchers lose confidence in their prospects.
Impact of External Factors: Issues such as potential US trade tariffs and economic pressures are looming, adding to the sense of instability and the need for sustainable fiscal planning.
Presidential Election as a Political Barometer: The upcoming presidential campaign is likely to be more consequential than previous ones, potentially reshaping the political landscape and exposing the strengths and weaknesses of the main parties.
Call for Engagement: The episode ends with an invitation for listeners to suggest political books for a forthcoming summer reading list podcast.
These points capture the podcast’s analysis of party strategies, leadership dilemmas, government instability, and the broader political context as Ireland approaches a pivotal presidential election
This Broadsheet.ie column from June 18th looks at the Government’s plans to hold a referendum later in 2019 to extend voting rights in future Irish presidential elections to both Northern Irish voters and the diaspora.
A session of the Irish Constitutional Convention 2012/2013
If last week’s reports are right – and the Taoiseach has said that they are – then all of us will be heading back to our local polling stations sometime in October or November.
No, it won’t be to elect new Dáil and a new government… well, it does yet not seem that will be the reason, but who knows what may change over Summer?
For now, it looks like Irish citizens across all 40 Dáil constituencies are about to be invited to vote in yet another referendum. This one on extending voting rights in future presidential elections. (I mention the 40 Dáil constituencies, as voters in four of them will likely be voting in by-elections occasioned by the election to the European Parliament of TDs: Billy Kelleher, Frances Fitzgerald, Clare Daly and Mick Wallace).
Confirming the reports in the Dáil last week the Taoiseach said that Cabinet has signed off on legislation to “extend voting rights for presidential elections to Irish citizens in Northern Ireland and around the world” and that he plans to have it debated before the Dáil rises for its summer recess [planned for July 11th].
He also said that the government has produced a 100-page, detailed paper on how it is going to work.
I sincerely hope it has, but why are we still waiting to see it?
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