Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…

It is likely that the next Dáil will have 178 members

Last Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos poll findings left many people wondering why Fine Gael had suffered such a big drop in support (-4%).

The publication of the second half of the poll’s findings, a day later, offered an answer. It showed that voters would much prefer to see more money spent on improving public services and infrastructure than on tax cuts.

Only 13% of 35 – 49-year-olds (which at 19% is Fine Gael’s strongest voting cohort – though only just) want to see the government surplus used for tax cuts compared to 24% who want to see the surplus used to improve public services such as health and education or 39% who want to see it used to build infrastructure such as public transport, housing, hospitals, and schools. The ratios are very similar across other age groups. Continue reading “Next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs… but how many extra will FF or FG win… I doubt it will be many…”

Its work is done, time to retire #hometovote and time for an Electoral Commission

This Broadsheet column appearing online first on June 5th 2018. 

749aa29a488f3df8a3ab91d3bb1e4228Type #HomeToVote into Google and you will find pages and pages of links to news items from around the globe detailing the stories of thousands of young Irish emigres travelling back to vote at the recent referendum.

You need to dive a few pages into the results to find items relating to the 2015 origins of the hashtag during the Marriage Equality campaign. Its history, in so much as there is a history, is set out on pages 158-159 of Ireland Says Yes: The Inside Story of How the Vote for Marriage Equality Was Won (One of the books on my 2017 Summer political reading list).

#HomeToVote spontaneously appeared late in the afternoon on the eve of polling day. The campaign had its own #BeMyYes campaign which had generated tens of thousands of messages from people committing themselves to Vote Yes, including many from young Irish people abroad considering returning home.

Continue reading “Its work is done, time to retire #hometovote and time for an Electoral Commission”

The formats of recent #8thRef debates makes the case to set up an independent electoral commission now.

This piece was written for Broadsheet.ie and appeared online on Tuesday May 15th 2018, on the morning after RTÉ One’s Claire Byrne Show debate on the abortion referendum: see HERE.  

CB debateOn the morning after the night before’s hyped-up #8thRef Claire Byrne debate: committed Yes campaigners are insisting that the Yes side won it while staunch No activists are declaring with equal ferocity that their side prevailed.

In my own view, neither side significantly moved the dial among undecided voters with the real loser in the whole sorry mess being public sector broadcasting.

This was not the fault of the presenter/moderator Claire Byrne or any of the lead speakers for the Yes or No sides, but of the folk in RTÉ who decided that having daytime TV style confrontation in front of a cheering crowd was the best way to discuss a fraught, complex and emotionally charged issue.

Continue reading “The formats of recent #8thRef debates makes the case to set up an independent electoral commission now.”