Tag: independents

My thoughts… with about one week until the start of #GE2024 campaign

by dsmooney, posted in Elections, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, independents, Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin, Tanaiste, Taoiseach
Bet the DUP didn’t know that this is what its slogan looks like as gaeilge… spotted in Cork
My latest MOONEY ON POLITICS podcast is based on the following text

Over the past few days, I’ve seen several political pundits offering their Irish election forecasts – offering a range of possible seat totals.

God bless their courage.

Until the campaign gets underway, I think it is wiser to avoid seat predictions, especially ones informed by polling. My main reason for this is that I think that the outcome of election will be heavily influenced by the campaign itself.

Campaigns matter… and this time around I believe the truth of this sound political adage will be very evident.

This is part due to the fact that this is will be a winter election. Though voters do like to be canvassed and the old motto that a vote worth getting is worth asking for still holds true voters might not be as inclined to engage with canvassers at their doors, especially during a cold Thursday evening. Continue reading “My thoughts… with about one week until the start of #GE2024 campaign” →

Fianna Fáil looks defenceless in Government while increasing defence investment

by dsmooney, posted in Cyber security, Defence, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, GE2020, Micheal Martin, Politics, Sinn Féin, Tanaiste, Taoiseach
From Defence Forces Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfmagazine/52213507361/

Earlier this week, An Taoiseach Micheál Martin, accompanied by ministers Simon Coveney and Eamon Ryan headed to McKee barracks, beside the Phoenix Park, to launch the overdue and long anticipated government’s action plan response to the Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces, entitled: “Building for the future – change from within.”

It is a good document. It commits the government to moving the State’s level of defence capability to Level of Ambition 2 (LOA) over a period of six years between now and 2028. In terms of cash and people, this means growing the annual Defence budget to €1.5 billion by 2028 (in 2022 prices) plus expanding the defence establishment by 2,000 personnel (civil and military).

Continue reading “Fianna Fáil looks defenceless in Government while increasing defence investment” →

Results of my Wisdom of Crowds Twitter poll on where government formation goes…

by dsmooney, posted in Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, GE2020, Green party, independents, Irish Labour Party, Politics, Sinn Féin

poll

As I mentioned in the earlier post, I decided to run a 2-day Twitter Poll on government formation on foot of my latest Broadsheet.ie column.

  • The poll ran on Twitter for 48 hours from 11.30am, Mon April 6th to 11.30am Wed April 8th.
  • 2019 votes were cast over that 48-hour period.
  • The Tweet poll received 7699 impressions and 2476 total engagements

The wisdom of crowds:
Wisdom of Crowds concept was popularized by James Surowiecki in his 2004 book. It is the idea that large groups of people can be collectively smarter than individual experts when it comes to predicting outcomes. Rather than asking individuals what they wish to see happen, you ask what they think the crowd will collectively do.

So, Twitter was asked:

Which of these 4 options do you think is the most likely to happen (NOT which do you prefer)…
• FF/FG/Green/Ind govt
• FF/FG/Lab/Ind govt
• FF/FG/Ind govt
• 2nd election

The Results:
• 33.9% 2nd election
• 31.9% FF/FG/Ind govt
• 17.7% FF/FG/Green/Ind govt
• 16.4% FF/FG/Lab/Ind govt

In terms of a second general election versus some form of  government with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Independent alone or PLUS either Greens or Labour, the numbers are:

  1.  Second Election:                                   33.9%
  2.  FF/FG/Ind +Green/labour/neither   66.1%

I have produced the results in PDF format:   Government Formation Twitter Poll

The decline of public language in politics is coming to Ireland

by dsmooney, posted in Fianna Fáil, Government, independents, Policy, Politics, Taoiseach

This is my Broadsheet column from just over a week ago – September 12th 2016 – it concerns the then MoS John Halligan will he/won’t he resign saga. Though he didn’t resign, keep this one on file for the next time this political soap opera comes around. The original column can be viewed here: www.broadsheet.ie/in-a-field-of-his-own/ 

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rain-hellThough he may not realise it: John Halligan’s pronouncements over the weekend (such as the headline [left] in the Sindo) may just be a very small part of a world-wide phenomenon.

No, I am not claiming there is global movement to secure a second catheterisation (cath) lab for Waterford. What I am saying however, is that his statements, particularly his most recent ones, contain many of the elements of the decline of public language in politics that we have heard elsewhere.

I accept that Halligan and the local consultants in Waterford hospital are sincere in desperately wanting a second cath lab, but wanting something is not the same as needing it – especially when resources are not unlimited.

Continue reading “The decline of public language in politics is coming to Ireland” →